About Aerology.com

This project’s forecast maps are generated using an analog pattern recognition method, based on cyclic patterns in the weather itself, it is not a modeling based method that most weather forecasting services such as the National Weather Service or Weather Channel provide. This analog method has been created over the past 25 years of scientific research and development by Richard Holle using archived data from the NOAA TD3200 cooperative summery.

Recently we have been able to extend our project online to provide yearly forecasts for those who would be interested in a more reliable, long term forecasting method. We believe that these forecasts would be extremely valuable for futures markets, farmers, forecasting of natural disasters and much more.

For the past 4 years we have provided these forecasts for precipitation, high temperatures, low temperatures, snowfall and snow on ground in the contiguous United States. As funding for additional data has become available, we will expand our forecasting methods and maps to outside the contiguous United States. In addition we are here adding two more national locations, Alaska/Canada, and Australia. We would also like to expand the forecasting technique to other natural disasters such as hail, tornadoes, and other severe weather. We would also be interested in requests from our users, if you have a suggestion of additional products you would be interested in please contact us.

The Process

We start with the studies of what works in climate forecasting, the Milankovitch cycles, and expand on what has turned out to be true about solar cycles according to Theodor Landscheidt, (almost the only one to correctly forecast the long solar minimum we are passing through). The evidence points to the natural variability factors as being the effects of the movement of the solar system through the galaxy, and the local area of the spiral arm we are passing through (Milankovitch), and by the inertial dampening of the planets effects on the barycenter of the solar system, that moves the sun’s center of mass around. As the sun moves through the swirling magnetic fields, plasma, and dust clouds, interacting with other close stars joining us in this dance to the celestial music as it were.

(Landscheidt) Found the patterns of the driving forces of the solar system barycenter of the solar system on the solar sun spot cycle patterns, and defined it to the point of predictability, it only seems that the next step would be to analyze the effects, of the harmonic interactions of the Inner planets, which mostly stay centered on the center of mass of the sun, have a rhythmic pattern to their orbital relationships, and their relations to the weather patterns they share.

The rotation of the ~12 degree tilted magnetic poles of the sun, alternates the polarity of the magnetic fields as it rotates, giving rise to 27.32 day magnetic impulses in the solar wind. Which in turn have driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance, that creates lunar declinational atmospheric tides in phase in the atmosphere. These are but one of several tidal interactions between the sun moon and earth. Because of the pendulum type movement North/South of the equator, the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days. With in a couple of degrees, then makes a sweep across the equator at up to 5 to 8 degrees per day.

At these culminations of declination movement, (because of the magnetically coupled driving) the polarity of the solar wind peaks, and starts reversing, causing a reversal of the ion flux generated by the Earth's homo polar generator fields. This combination, of both the peak of Meridian flow in the atmosphere, and the reversal of ion charge gradient globally, occurs at the same time as the most severe weather outbreaks. We have been working on the correlations and possible causation by analyzing the raw weather data in regard to these lunar tidal movements.

The semi boundary conditions by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, result in topographical forcing of the global circulation into a four fold pattern, of types of Rossby waves, and resultant Jet stream patterns. To compensate, I had to use four lunar declinational periods (4 X 27.325 days = 109.3 days) as a base period, to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns, into the data to get clearer repeatability.

In a complex pattern of Inner planet harmonics, of 6585.32 days length, the Saros cycle, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field. By subtracting one 27.32 day lunar declinational period from this period, I get 6558 days, the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.32 days. By using 6558 days as a synchronization period, I get the lunar Declination culmination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets (with in a couple days) into alignment from the past four (6558 day) long cycles.

The best pattern to use for the precipitation pattern synchronization, of these patterns (I have found so far), is from 13,550 days ago and 6558 days either side, to keep the 18.6 Mn signal, and seasonal shifts minimized. To try this for your self, start with daily data from 6992 days ago, 13,550 days ago 20,108 days ago, and 26,666 days ago, show the daily maps from each cycle, side by side to see the shifts between them, or composite them together to see the same results I get here.

The temperature patterns are affected by the seasonal shifts of up to 36 days off of the same Julian date in some of the cycles, so I had to change the sort dates for the temperatures to get a better seasonally adjusted match to 6,938, day back, 13,496, 20,108, and 26,666 days back from the required forecast date to get a better match to the actual.

The original concept was to see if there was any repeatability that would indicate a causation effect, more than just a correlation. The repeatability of the patterns, was good enough, that the averages of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations, give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last four cycles, to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events. Well enough, that if used as a weather forecast, the results rival the five to seven day forecasts for accuracy, and does better than the models do, out past 10 days.

A sample of the cyclic pattern found in the meteorological database was originally presented (and still is the current site maps) as the daily weather data, of the past three cycles com-posited together, and plotted onto maps for a 5 year period starting in 2008, and running to January of 2014.

With the upgrade to using four cycles and finer definition of the map grid scale from 60 miles to 3 mile grid patterns and minimum smoothing, more detailed maps are now presented on this website, I used knowledge gained over the past four years, to further define the shifts in the patterns, from the past three cycles, to develop the current process of using four cycles, and will continue to keep learning about the details of the interactions.

The outer planets are in a harmonically synchronized pattern of repetition of about 10 times the 17.95 year period of the inner planets of about 179.3 Years.

The 18.6 year Mn pattern of Minimum to Maximum Lunar declination extremes, in combination with the Synod conjunctions of the outer planets, drives the decade long scale oscillations of the atmosphere across the ocean basins. The Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, it turns out, are the major mixing mechanism for the transportation, of tropical ocean warmth and moisture over the land masses, into the mid-latitudes and polar regions, where it more easily radiates away into space.

The longer term/period parts, (Milankovitch and Landscheidt cycles) of these driving forces are valid. It would be in error if these shorter-term Lunar declination cycles, were not considered for their effects, and calculated into the filtering of the swings, into the current weather models, used for daily forecasts, or with climate data models, for forecasting longer terms into the future.

The outer planet longer term ~179.3 years causes interferences, as the annual timing of the Synod conjunctions with the earth, come into and out of phase, with the 6558 periods of the inner planets, but have their own harmonic patterns, that also come round to the ~172 year pattern Landscheidt discovered, (the range of the length of cycle due to the changes in the elipicity of all the planets orbits is between 170 and 180 years) so this set of maps on this site are the shorter inner planetary period set of variables, that help to further define the short term ~decade long limits, of the natural variables that are needed to be considered, along side the CO2 hypothesis.

The research section of the site is both research done by me and many links from other online blogs into threads where the development of fresh ideas were being formed. I thought that these ideas that fit into what I have been working on would be of interest to others, the date time stamp in the posts, most of the time will link you to the captured comment, and you can peruse the rest of the interactions on the whole original tread.

Further consideration of the formation of algorithms to correct the inner planet patterns for the removal of the past outer planet interference, and reinsertion of the expected effects of the current cycles by the outer planet modulation of the filtered past cycle signal will considerably improve the accuracy of the forecast potential of the next generation of mapping products that could be developed using an off shoot of this method.

All of this can be done, just by extending the knowledge of the interactions, of the Sun with the planets, and their combined effects, based on satellite data from solar wind and CME production of ion scavenging upper atmospheric effects, on the resultant modulation of the Lunar declinational tidal effects on the Earth's atmospheric global circulation. Resulting in the further defining of the global circulation pattern dynamics, that control the meridional atmospheric and ocean tidal transfer of the Earth's out going heat budget from the oceans.

If by extrapolation, scientists could bother to study the interactions, between the close neighbors of the Sun, in the local arm of the Galaxy. With due consideration of their type, size, magnetic, radiative, heliopause field strengths, and proper motions to each other, a better understanding of their interactions with the larger galactic fields, clouds, and radiation background forces, could be applied to understanding the whole package of climate, and more progress could be made.

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