This project's forecast maps are generated using an analog pattern recognition method, based on cyclic patterns in the weather itself, it is not a modeling based method that most weather forecasting services such as the National Weather Service or Weather Channel provide. This analog method has been created over the past 25 years of scientific research and development by Richard Holle using archived data from the NOAA TD3200 cooperative summery.

Recently we have been able to extend our project online to provide yearly forecasts for those who would be interested in a more reliable, long term forecasting method. We believe that these forecasts would be extremely valuable for futures markets, farmers, forecasting of natural disasters and much more.

Currently we provide these forecasts for precipitation, high temperatures, low temperatures, snowfall and snow on ground in the contiguous United States. As funding becomes available, we would like to expand our forecasting methods and maps to outside the contiguous United States. In addition to locations, we would also like to expand the forecasting technique to other natural disasters such as hail, tornadoes, and other severe weather. We would also be interested in requests from our users, if you have a suggestion of additional products you would be interested in please contact us.

The Process

We start with the studies of what works in climate forecasting, the Milankovitch cycles, and expand on what has turned out to be true about solar cycles according to Theodor Landscheidt, (the only one to correctly forecast the long solar minimum we are passing through). The evidence points to the natural variability factors as being the effects of the rotation or the galaxy, and the swirl imparted to the local area of the spiral arm we reside in (Milankovitch), and by the inertial dampening of the planets effects on the barycenter of the solar system, that moves the sunÕs center of mass around. As the sun moves through the swirling magnetic fields, plasma, and dust clouds, interacting with other close stars joining us in this dance to the celestial music as it were.

(Landscheidt) Found the driving forces of the Inertial dampening, of the system on the solar cycle patterns, and defined it to the point of predictability, it only seems that the next step would be to analyze the effects, of the interactions of the Inner planets, which have a rhythmic pattern to their orbital relationships, and their relations to the weather patterns they share.

The 27.325 day magnetic impulses in the solar wind, from the rotation of the ~12 degree tilted magnetic poles of the sun, alternates the polarity of the magnetic fields introduced into the solar wind. Which in turn have driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance, that creates lunar declinational atmospheric tides in phase in the atmosphere. Because of the pendulum type movement the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days. With in a couple of degrees, then makes a sweep across the equator at up to 5 to 8 degrees per day.

At these culminations of declination movement, (because of the magnetically coupled driving) the polarity of the solar wind peaks, and starts reversing, causing a reversal of the ion flux generated by the Earth's homo polar generator fields. This combination, of both the peak of Meridian flow in the atmosphere, and the reversal of ion charge gradient globally, occurs at the same time as most severe weather outbreaks.

The semi boundary conditions by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, result in topographical forcing of the global circulation into a four fold pattern, of types of Rossby waves, and resultant Jet stream patterns. To compensate, I had to use four lunar declinational periods (4 X 27.325 days = 109.3 days) as a base period, to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns, into the data to get clearer repeatability.

In a complex pattern of Inner planet harmonics, of 6554 days length, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field. By adding 4 days to this period, I get 6558 days, the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.325 days. By using 6558 days as a synchronization period, I get the lunar Declination culmination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets (with in a couple days) into alignment from the past three (6558 day) long cycles.

The best pattern to use for synchronization, of these patterns (I have found so far), is from 13,550 days ago and 6558 days either side, to keep the 18.6 Mn signal, and seasonal shifts minimized. To try this for your self, start with daily data from 6992 days ago, 13,550 days ago and 20,108 days ago, and show the daily maps from each cycle, side by side to see the shifts between them, or composite them together to see the same results I get here. (There may be needed a 1 day shift at times due to leap year .25 fractional days problems)

The original concept was to see if there was any repeatability that would indicate a causation effect, more than just a correlation. The repeatability of the patterns, was good enough, that the averages of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations, give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three cycles, to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events. Well enough, that if used as a weather forecast, the results rival the three to five day forecasts for accuracy, and does better than the models do, out past a week.

A sample of the cyclic pattern found in the meteorological database is presented as the daily weather data, of the past three cycles composited together, and plotted onto maps for a 5 year period starting in 2008, and running to January of 2014, presented on this rough draft website, I use to further define the shifts in the patterns, from the past three to the current cycle, to continue learning about the details of the interactions.

The 18.6 year Mn pattern of Minimum to Maximum Lunar declination extremes, in combination with the Synod conjunctions of the outer planets, drives the decade long scale oscillations of the atmosphere, across ocean basins. The Lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, it turns out, are the major mixing mechanism for the transportation, of tropical ocean warmth and moisture over the landmasses, into the mid-latitudes and polar regions, where it more easily radiates away into space.

The longer term/period parents (Milankovitch and Landscheidt cycles) of these driving forces are valid. It would be in error if these shorter-term Lunar declination cycles, were not considered for their effects, and calculated into the filtering of the swings, into the current weather models, used for daily forecasts, or with climate data models, for forecasting longer terms into the future. The outer planet longer term interferences, come into and out of phase, with the 6554 periods of the inner planets, but have their own harmonic patterns, that come round to the ~172 year pattern Landscheidt discovered, so this is the shorter period set of variables, that further define the limits, of the natural variables that are needed to be considered, along side the CO2 hypothesis.

All of this can be done, just by extending the knowledge of the interactions, of the Sun with the planets, and their combined effects, on the Lunar tidal effects on the Earth's atmospheric global circulation. Resulting in the further defining of the dynamics, that control the transfer of the Earth's out going heat budget from the oceans.

If by extrapolation, scientists could bother to study the interactions, between the close neighbors of the Sun, in the local arm of the Galaxy. With due consideration of their type, size, magnetic, radiative, heliopause field strengths, and proper motions to each other, a better understanding of their interactions with the larger galactic fields, clouds, and radiation background, forces applied to understanding the whole package of climate, more progress could be made.